China has reasons to worry about nuclear
2024-10-07 12:25:34
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| Today's friend could be tomorrow's nuclear-armed enemy. Reuters |
By Jung Min-ho
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| Sandip Kumar Mishra |
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| Aaron M. Hoffman |
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| David Graff |
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| Vishnu Prakash |
After the historic summit between the United States and North Korea earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that China wouldn't be "happy with someone having nuclear weapons so close."
Many experts agree. They reckon, with a nuclear arsenal in hand, North Korea is now a bigger diplomatic concern and potential threat to China, which did not want the regime to develop the weapons in the first place.
China, which exerted great influence over North Korea with its economic power and nuclear umbrella, wants to maintain its clout. But a nuclear-armed North Korea will not be the same, according to Sandip Kumar Mishra, a professor of international relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.
"Nuclear capability has given North Korea more power over not just the U.S. but also China," Mishra told The Korea Times. "China would like North Korea to surrender its nuclear arsenal and be dependent on China's nuclear umbrella. Now, China has fewer military and strategic advantages over Pyongyang."
Though China has long been the most important ally of North Korea, the regime wants more political and diplomatic independence from it, he said.
"North Korea wants that it would take care of its security by itself and China should come in for support, only if it's needed and requested by North Korea," he said. "Even before getting a nuclear arsenal, Pyongyang played its cards carefully with China. It knew in the past and still knows that China needs North Korea as much as North Korea needs China, if not more."
North Korea's nuclear weapons also pose security risks to China.
"Every country has reason to fear another country's nuclear arsenals," Aaron M. Hoffman, a political science professor at Purdue University, said. "The main risk is either some kind of nuclear accident, resulting in the involuntary launch of weapons, or serious miscommunication in which leaders are led to believe, falsely, that a launch against their country is imminent. Being the ally of another country doesn't guarantee protection against either of these possibilities, although friends might be less inclined to believe false warnings about launches than enemies."
The worst-case scenario for China, though very unlikely in the short run, is that North Korea's nuclear arsenal will turn into a direct military threat to its mega cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, which North Korea can strike without intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) if it wants to. It may sound inconceivable as it is difficult to imagine the two turning against each under the present conditions. But history shows there are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations.
For North Korea, what has already become an obvious benefit of possessing the weapons is that it can rest more easily about its survival against enemies, including potential ones. "Its nuclear stockpile means that nuclear states like the U.S. and China will have a harder time pushing North Korea around," Hoffman said.
China is aware of such risks, but it has other more immediate priorities, including preventing regime collapse, said David Graff, a professor of security studies at Kansas State University.
"Chinese leaders are not unaware of the potential downside, but appear to have been driven more by the fear of near-term disasters, including the possible collapse of the regime, rather than longer-term worries," he said.
'North Korea will likely remain nuclear-armed'
At his summit with Trump, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised to denuclearize North Korea. When asked whether Kim will fulfill his promise, all six international relations experts The Korea Times contacted said they doubt the possibility.
"In the history of nuclear arms, no country in the world which once acquired these weapons through its own quest gave them up," Mishra said. "There is just one example of Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal but it was basically the USSR's nuclear arsenals which came to Ukraine in lineage. Thus, it is the most likely scenario that North Korea, which even at this point of time is a de facto nuclear power, would seek its acceptance and legitimization in the world."
Vishnu Prakash, former Indian ambassador to South Korea, agrees.
"Kim (and his forebears) acutely comprehend(ed) the realities of raw power and deterrence," he said. "He trusts nobody and least of all the U.S. Hence he will never give up the nuclear option and CVID is out of question, which the U.S. is aware of. At the Singapore summit, Kim indeed was dealing from a position of strength, having gotten over the CVID hump.
"For the United States, capping of North Korea's missile and nuclear program is good enough. Trump will ensure through intrusive monitoring that ICBM refinement is completely halted, which Kim will be amenable to … In the case of conflict, North Korea will target Seoul and Tokyo for which it does not need ICBMs. Nobody is demanding that they give up their arsenal of short, medium and intermediate-range missiles."
（作者：新闻中心）
