[Roundtable] Kim Jong

The Korea Times hosted a roundtable discussion about the April 27 inter-Korean summit. The participants _ columnists Michael Breen and Jacco Zwetsloot together with the Times digital managing editor Oh Young-jin and embassy correspondent Yi Whan-woo _ talked about a wide range of issues, from the North's possible ulterior motives, feasibility of denuclearization and the South's priority regarding previous nuclear accords. The consensus was that the summit, to be followed by the one between the North's Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, is a hopeful sign but it is not prudent to get overly excited as if the meeting could solve the decades of animosity peaking with the North's pursuit of nuclear-armed intercontinental missiles that can reach all the continental United States. ― ED.

By Oh Young-jin

First, most of us felt that it couldn't be real.

Then, that sense of incredulity gave in to a hint of hope, "maybe."

Now, it is moving to "this time, it could be different."

This has been the emotional sequence over the past couple of months since the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. Kim Yo-jong visited the South as her brother and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un's special envoy, inviting President Moon Jae-in for a trip to the North.

Then, Moon's envoys went to the North, returning with Kim's proposals for inter-Korean and North Korea-United States summits.

RoundtableMoon rises as the stars align over Koreas 2018-04-15 15:43 RoundtablePostal exchanges with N. Korea 2018-04-15 15:40 RoundtableSolid steps needed on denuclearization 2018-04-15 16:38  |  North Korea The 34-year-old leader went on a not-so-secret trip to China and had a summit with Xi Jinping, China's leader. It was Kim's first major trip outside the country. The two Koreas held a series of talks to fix the summit date as April 27.

Pyongyang and Washington are revealed to have conducted talks to decide what they would discuss. U.S. President Trump insisted on nothing less than complete, prompt denuclearization. The North incredibly showed a willingness to do so, or so it seems.

A reality check is needed on whether the North will voluntarily disarm itself.

The North is a poor country and its dictator uses its weapons of mass destruction ― nuclear weapons and missiles ― as a tool to prevent its big neighbors from pushing it around.

So giving those weapons up would mean the loss of a key tool for self-protection and put its fate at the mercy of other countries. No dictator in his right mind would commit such a suicidal act.
There is the Libyan lesson ― its dictator Gaddafi was overthrown and killed by his detractors soon after he took a western offer to give him security guarantees in return for renouncing unconventional weapons programs. Would Kim choose to go down Gaddafi's path? No. Would Kim be naive enough to believe he can succeed where the Libyan leader failed? No.

Kim has also used the weapons programs as a propaganda tool to distract its population from hardships, keep the elite on their toes and give the nation a sense of purpose ― going head to head with its sworn enemy, the U.S.

What would Kim propose giving to North Koreans in return? A capitalist paradise where no material things are in shortage? The northerners wouldn't be as credulous as to believe that.
That means Kim likely has little intention to separate himself from his nukes and missiles. At the same time, he would want to lessen the pressure from international sanctions.

In other words, he is back at his old waiting game until the world is again distracted by other pressing issues. After all, it has worked before. Kim would say to himself, "why not this time?"


Oh Young-jin ([email protected], [email protected]) is the digital managing editor of The Korea Times.