US midterm results to sideline North Korea issue: experts

U.S. President Joe Biden looks on as he holds a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Nov. 13. Experts say the U.S. midterm election results will push Biden to focus on domestic affairs for the next two years. Reuters-Yonhap

War in Ukraine, China's growing clout will likely dominate Biden's foreign policy agenda

By Jung Min-ho

The midterm election results will increase pressure on U.S. politicians, particularly President Joe Biden, to focus on issues that matter to voters. This means even less attention from Washington to North Korea's growing threats, let alone any serious diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation, according to experts.

The final outcome is still unclear as votes continue to be counted. As of Monday (local time), the Democrats will retain their Senate majority, while Republicans (GOP) are on track to take back control of the House.

"To be frank, anything Korea-related is furthest from lawmakers' minds at the moment as the fate of Congress still hangs in the balance. Assuming the GOP takes the House … issues like inflation, the economy and domestic issues will take center stage," said Harry Kazianis, head of Rogue States Project, a U.S. think tank. "After that, moving to foreign policy, Ukraine will dominate the discussion, [including] how much to fund [the country for the war]. After that, China will take what little bandwidth is left. Sadly, unless Kim Jong-un starts World War III, Korea just won't be an issue for this Congress ― even as North Korea builds more and more nuclear weapons that could kill millions of people in minutes."

Former U.S. President Donald Trump was seeking to secure a big deal with the North Korean leader over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program while in office. But under Biden, a career politician who has spent half a century in Washington, such an attempt would not be possible, especially given the circumstances, he noted.

"I see no way that Biden could negotiate with North Korea … Biden knows that anything he does that looks like a concession will be used by his political enemies as a weapon to hurt him politically. So that means there will be no grand bargain on North Korea's nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future," Kazianis said. "Biden would have to expend huge amounts of political capital to get anything done, and he likely sees no reason to do so as North Korea is not an issue Americans vote on ― and concessions will only hurt him."

In this file photo taken on March 1, 2019, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un attends a welcoming ceremony and reviews an honor guard at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi, Vietnam. AFP-Yonhap

Given the election results, neither party can claim a clear victory, and the Biden administration will likely focus on tackling inflation and crime ― the issues that almost cost the ruling party Senate control, said Jeong Han-bum, an international relations professor at Korea National Defense University.

"State primaries and caucuses begin a year before the presidential election in 2024, Biden does not have much time and he knows it," Jeong said. "The issues that can win votes that day will be on his key agenda, if not only agenda."

Abortion rights and the crisis in democracy were among the main messages the Democratic Party promoted to voters during the campaign period. To some extent, the strategy worked and prompted anti-Trump voters to cast their ballots. But Jeong believes such messages will prove to be less effective in a matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the emerging rival to Trump in the Republican Party, which will likely affect Biden further when it comes to important political decisions.

His policy priority will likely remain the same even if North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear weapons test, according to Jeong. Intelligence reports indicate that the North is ready for its first such test since 2017.

"If that happens, it will certainly draw international attention and criticism, but probably not for a long time," he said. "Unless the North does anything drastic such as military attacks on South Korea, North Korea won't be the main interest of U.S. politicians at least for the next two years."

At Sunday's trilateral summit in Phnom Penh, the Cambodian capital, with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts ― Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida ― Biden reaffirmed the U.S.' extended deterrence protection of the two allies while suggesting no policy changes regarding North Korea.