By Choi Ha-young
The two Koreas agreed to resume talks between their militaries at their high-level meeting, Tuesday, but tricky issues may hamper the progress of the envisioned meetings, analysts said Wednesday.
The Ministry of National Defense said it is preparing for the meeting with the North Koreans which is likely to take place as early as next week.
The main topic will be how to ensure the safety of the North Korean delegation on their way to PyeongChang to participate in the Winter Olympics and during their stay there. The only possible route for a North Korean team is an overland route since traveling by ship or air is subject to international sanctions.
For this, the two sides have to fully restore the military communication hotline, said Hong Hyun-ik, senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute. "The North is likely to prefer crossing the eastern border to PyeongChang in an attempt to promote the Masikryong Ski Resort near the North's eastern city of Wonsan," Hong said.
On Tuesday, North Korean officials informed the South that the North has reconnected the inter-Korean military cables in the West Sea, but the Koreas have not repaired the three cables in the East Sea. The East Sea military channels have not operated since May 31, 2011 and they were destroyed by the forest fire in 2013.
Experts expect that the North is likely to demand the halt of the Seoul-Washington joint military drills. On Jan. 4, three days after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared that the North will participate in the PyeongChang Games, President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to postpone the military exercise until after the Winter Games.
"The North will call for permanent suspension of the exercise, as well as withdrawal of U.S. strategic assets such as B-1B Lancer bombers," Hong said. "For the South, this is a matter which is tied to the North's nuclear armament. Also, this requires communication with Washington."
"Therefore, it's desirable to prioritize issues the two Koreas can handle. Afterward, the two Koreas can organize another talk which involves the U.S.," Hong added.
Another sensitive issue for the North is the South's loudspeakers installed in the borderline villages. In 2015, the former President Park Geun-hye government began to operate the speakers to broadcast outside information to North Korea in protest against its alleged "landmine provocation."
"The speaker issue could be Seoul's bargaining chip that could attract the North's concession," said Cha Du-hyeogn, visiting research fellow at the Asan Institute.
In return, South Korea can urge the North to abide by past agreements to prevent accidental crashes on both sea and land, Cha said. The area near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea has often turned into a hot spot in spring during the annual blue crab season.
In November last year, some North Korean soldiers accidentally crossed the Military Demarcation Line while chasing a defector in apparent violation of the armistice treaty.
