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| This photo released Thursday shows North Korea's new Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile being test-launched the previous day. Yonhap |
Pyongyang takes one more step toward acquiring harder-to-detect missiles: experts
By Jung Min-ho
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop more efficient and reliable weapons as he supervised the second "successful" test of his regime's solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) designed to strike the U.S., according to state media on Thursday.
The Hwasong-18, fired on a lofted trajectory the previous day, flew 1,001.2 kilometers at a maximum altitude of 6,648 kilometers for 74 minutes before falling into a "targeted area" in waters off its east coast, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
The flight time was the longest ever for any North Korean missile. If launched on a standard angle, it could fly more than 15,000 kilometers ― enough to reach the U.S. homeland.
Analysts told The Korea Times that Pyongyang appears to be making progress in developing missiles with built-in solid fuels, which would offer greater mobility and shorter preparation time than liquid ones. Once widely adopted by the North Korean military, the missiles would clearly pose a greater threat to Seoul, they said; but they differed in their opinions over how dangerous they would be for Washington.
Given the large size of telemetry antennas attached near the tip of the missile for collecting data, North Korea appeared to test its full capacity after succeeding the first solid-propellant ICBM test in April, according to Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank.
"North Korea would need more things to prove that it can threaten the U.S. mainland with the missile, such as its atmospheric reentry technology. But what's more clear is that it took another meaningful step toward developing ― and eventually deploying ― solid-fuel missiles. Once the development is finished, North Korea would replace most of its liquid-fuel missiles with them to make a dangerous mix (to South Korea)," he said.
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| This photo released Thursday shows North Korea's new Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile being test-launched the previous day. Yonhap |
Liquid propellants provide greater propulsive thrust and power. But militarily, solid ones are more effective as they do not need to be fueled before launch at the risk of detection; they can remain in storage for a longer period without degrading ― a significant risk to the South Korea- U.S. missile defense system that relies on detection capabilities.
Cha Du-hyeogn, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank, also believes North Korea will eventually acquire solid-fuel missiles. But he remains skeptical that it will be able to develop all the advanced technologies required for them to reach the U.S. mainland any time soon.
"The latest test is no game changer," he said. "I think the test was chiefly aimed at turning the attention from North Korea's humiliating failure in the recent satellite rocket launch."
In fact, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters the same day that intelligence officials were assessing the possibility that the missile was fired without carrying any warhead in order to ensure the mission would be a success the regime needed for political reasons.
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| This photo, released Thursday, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, smiling after the test launch of a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile the previous day. Yonhap |
Some experts, however, think that North Korea's nuclear threat to the U.S. ― and, therefore, to its alliance with South Korea ― should not be underestimated. To a certain extent, North Korea proved that its long-range missiles, launched on a lofted trajectory, can reenter the atmosphere and that the missiles could possibly reach America. They may not be precise; however, "with nuclear warheads, they don't have to be precise to pose a significant threat to the U.S.," said a military analyst, who refused to be named.
At the test site, North Korea's Kim blamed Seoul and Washington for rising tensions, saying his "aggressive military policy" will continue until the two change their hostile stance toward the North.
"The policy direction and strategy of developing efficient and reliable weapons systems will never change," he was quoted as saying by the KCNA.
